Health care plans by the GOP and Democrats are headed to a vote. Here’s why they’re likely to fail

Senate Majority Leader Thune said that legislation by Democrats lacks sufficient reforms to curb fraud.

The Senate is heading toward dueling partisan votes on health care this week after Republicans said Tuesday that they had united around a plan, for now, that would allow COVID-era health care subsidies to expire.

Both the Republican plan, which would replace the subsidies with new savings accounts, and a Democratic bill to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits for three years lack the bipartisan support needed for passage. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Tuesday that the Democratic legislation does not include enough reforms to curb fraud or limit high-income recipients. That legislation “will fail,” Thune said.

At the same time, Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the Republican plan “phony” and said the bill is “dead on arrival.”

The burden is on Republicans “to vote with us,” Schumer said of Democrats, who forced a 43-day government shutdown over the issue.

With Republicans and Democrats unable to agree — or even really negotiate with each other — millions of people could see increases in their premium payments when the tax credits expire in January. Both sides blame the other for the increasingly likely failure of Congress to act, bringing the issue into the midterm election year with political talking points but little in the way of compromise on the subsidies that have helped keep costs down for many of the more than 24 million Americans.