The 12-month window

In a recent episode of “No Priors” — the excellent podcast co-hosted by AI investors Sarah Guo and Elad Gil — Gil made a point about exit timing that’s undoubtedly familiar to founders who’ve spent time with him but seems particularly useful in this moment of go-go dealmaking.

For most companies, Gil said, there’s roughly a 12-month period where the business is at its peak value, “and then it crashes out.” The companies that capture generational returns are often the ones where someone spies that moment instead of assuming the good times will get even better. Lotus, AOL, and Mark Cuban’s Broadcast.com all sold at or near the top, and all are held up by Gil as outfits that foresaw what was coming and smartly pulled the ripcord.

To catch that window, Gil offered a practical suggestion: pre-schedule a board meeting once or twice a year specifically to discuss exits. If it’s a standing calendar item, it drains the emotion out of the equation.

This matters more now than it might have a few years ago. A lot of AI startups exist partly because the foundation models haven’t expanded into their category yet. But as many founders — like Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz –have jokingly begun to acknowledge, that won’t last forever.

As Gil put it: “As you see shift[s] in differentiation and defensibility and all the rest, it’s a good time to ask, ‘Hey, is this my moment? Are these next six months when I’m going to be the most valuable I’ll ever be?’”

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